As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.2% in Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child? — $9.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.8 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since January 14, 2026, No has traded between 55.8% and 98.6%. It opened at 82.5% and last traded at 98.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.2% |
No is favored at 98.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98¢ | 98.2% | — | $9.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $9.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
On January 12, Elon Musk announced he would be filing for full custody of the child he shares with Ashley St. Clair. (see: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded sole legal custody, or primary residential/physical custody of his son Romulus in the form of a final order by any U.S. court by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary custody orders or interim arrangements will not qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution unless they become final orders by the stated market deadline. This market will resolve immediately to "No" if all relevant court proceedings permanently cease, or are dropped by either party. This market will resolve based on announcements from Elon Musk, Ashley St. Clair, their official legal or social media representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 982 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Punctual-Sand | No | 982 | $963 |
| Compassionate-Lawsuit | No | 351 | $345 |
| Nice-Barrel | Yes | 265 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 238 | $4 |
| JonnyA | No | 200 | $196 |
| Overcooked-Loft | Yes | 150 | $3 |
| Imaginative-Shoes | Yes | 145 | $3 |
| Self-Assured-Sardine | Yes | 123 | $2 |
| Low-Jug | No | 113 | $111 |
| Finished-Cactus | Yes | 111 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 12:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 12:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 17, 12:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $67 |
| Oct 16, 03:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $66 |
| Oct 11, 03:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 03:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $0 |
| Oct 04, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Sep 24, 03:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.8% | $38 |
| Sep 24, 03:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $57 |
| Sep 22, 02:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.8% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.2%. Next is Yes at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-elon-musk-get-full-custody-of-the-st-clair-child?via=bro
$9.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.eonline.com/news/1427282/elon-musk-filing-for-full-custody-of-son-with-ashley-st-clair.
No, priced at 98.2% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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