As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.5% in Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026? — $5.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -7.0 pts; past month: -68.5 pts.
Since August 07, 2026, No has traded between 15.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 93.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 93.5% |
No is favored at 93.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 93.5% | — | $5.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $5.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 11, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaches "Bleaching Alert Level 1" (or a higher alert level) on the Current Coral Bleaching Alert Level on any day within this market's timeframe (from market creation through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The Bleaching Alert Area for the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station reaching Bleaching Alert Level 1 (or a higher alert level) on any single day within this timeframe is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, Bleaching Alert Level 1 corresponds to a Degree Heating Week (DHW) value of 4 or greater °C-weeks at the Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station, as calculated by NOAA Coral Reef Watch from the 90th-percentile daily HotSpot values within that station's boundary. The primary resolution source for this market will be the "Bleaching Alert Area" reading on NOAA Coral Reef Watch's Main Hawaiian Islands virtual station gauge page (https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 714 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Witty-Birch | No | 714 | $667 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 542 | $35 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 300 | $280 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 101 | $7 |
| Creamy-Geology | Yes | 100 | $6 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 97 | $6 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 83 | $5 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 62 | $4 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 40 | $3 |
| Teeming-Puppet | No | 27 | $26 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 01:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 06:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $12 |
| Oct 14, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $29 |
| Oct 14, 06:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $19 |
| Oct 14, 06:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 04:22 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 13, 04:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $9 |
| Oct 13, 04:22 AM ET | No | BUY | 76.6% | $300 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.5%. Next is Yes at 6.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-hawaii-reach-coral-bleaching-alert-level-1-by-december-31-2026-20260807170348514?via=bro
$5.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 11, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php.
No, priced at 93.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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