Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 93.0% in Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? — $54.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
93%
A 93.0% price implies roughly a 93-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
30D −2.0 pts
No93.0%
Yes7.0%
Bid
5¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since May 21, 2026: 52.5% – 96.0% · Opened at 52.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?
Category
Ukraine Map, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$54.7K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$1.8K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 93.0%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 93.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past month: -2.0 pts.

Since May 21, 2026, No has traded between 52.5% and 96.0%. It opened at 52.5% and last traded at 93.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202693.0%
Oct 18, 202693.0%
Oct 19, 202693.0%
Oct 20, 202692.5%
Oct 22, 202693.0%
Oct 23, 202693.0%
Oct 24, 202693.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 93.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No93¢93.0%—$54.7K100.0%
Yes7¢7.0%—$54.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$54.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 49.373835° N, 37.622038° E in Borova, Kharkiv Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 290 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Essential-DiaristYes290$20
Normal-MariachiNo167$155
Evil-RowNo147$137
Wry-ElmNo145$135
Snappy-RoosterYes143$10
Ashamed-RosterNo124$115
Straight-HuntingYes90$6
Overjoyed-BorrowerYes70$5
Direct-ChainstayYes66$5
Honorable-ProprietorNo58$54

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $180 at 90.0%SELL Yes — $60 at 12.3%BUY No — $50 at 86.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 06:54 PM ETNoBUY94.1%$5
Oct 02, 07:06 PM ETYesSELL7.0%$2
Sep 29, 12:17 PM ETYesSELL8.0%$1
Sep 25, 01:54 AM ETYesSELL8.0%$1
Sep 25, 01:53 AM ETYesBUY10.0%$3
Sep 25, 01:53 AM ETNoSELL90.0%$180
Sep 22, 07:14 PM ETNoSELL92.0%$14
Sep 22, 07:14 PM ETNoSELL93.0%$19
Sep 20, 07:52 AM ETYesSELL6.0%$0
Sep 18, 04:58 AM ETYesSELL6.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 93.0%. Next is Yes at 7.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-borova-by-december-31-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026??

$54.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 93.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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