As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 15.5% in Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...? — $453.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 15.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -7.5 pts; past month: -35.0 pts.
Since June 25, 2026, December 31 has traded between 15.5% and 77.5%. It opened at 23.0% and last traded at 15.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 23.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 15.5% |
December 31 is favored at 15.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 16¢ | 15.5% | -1.5 pts | $63.8K | 14.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$453.0K has been traded on this event in total, $818 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,052 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demanding-Chopsticks | Yes | 5,052 | $783 |
| Melodic-Giggle | No | 4,422 | $3.7K |
| Velvety-Confirmation | No | 4,048 | $3.4K |
| Utilized-Procurement | Yes | 2,428 | $376 |
| Light-Front | No | 1,994 | $1.7K |
| Yearly-Volatility | No | 1,717 | $1.5K |
| Vapid-Workshop | No | 1,628 | $1.4K |
| Unique-Primary | Yes | 1,456 | $226 |
| Orderly-Fennel | Yes | 1,363 | $211 |
| Fuzzy-Astrolabe | No | 1,316 | $1.1K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:56 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-mala-tokmachka-by?via=bro
$453.0K in total volume, with $818 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.
December 31, priced at 15.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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