Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 15.5% in Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...? — $453.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $818.
Leading outcome
December 31
16%
A 15.5% price implies roughly a 16-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.5 pts7D −7.5 pts30D −35.0 pts
Bid
15¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since June 25, 2026: 15.5% – 77.5% · Opened at 23.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
Category
Ukraine Map, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$453.0K
Volume (24h)
$818
Liquidity
$8.5K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 15.5%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 15.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -7.5 pts; past month: -35.0 pts.

Since June 25, 2026, December 31 has traded between 15.5% and 77.5%. It opened at 23.0% and last traded at 15.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202623.0%
Oct 18, 202617.0%
Oct 19, 202618.5%
Oct 20, 202617.5%
Oct 22, 202617.0%
Oct 23, 202617.0%
Oct 24, 202615.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 15.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3116¢15.5%-1.5 pts$63.8K14.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$453.0K has been traded on this event in total, $818 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,052 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Demanding-ChopsticksYes5,052$783
Melodic-GiggleNo4,422$3.7K
Velvety-ConfirmationNo4,048$3.4K
Utilized-ProcurementYes2,428$376
Light-FrontNo1,994$1.7K
Yearly-VolatilityNo1,717$1.5K
Vapid-WorkshopNo1,628$1.4K
Unique-PrimaryYes1,456$226
Orderly-FennelYes1,363$211
Fuzzy-AstrolabeNo1,316$1.1K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $95 at 16.0%SELL No — $75 at 80.5%BUY No — $51 at 85.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:56 PM ETYesSELL17.0%$5
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$0
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETYesSELL15.0%$4
Oct 24, 04:55 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-mala-tokmachka-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...??

$453.0K in total volume, with $818 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 15.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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