As of October 24, 2026, 09:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 75.0% in Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day reach $1B in domestic box office in 2026? — $39 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 75.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: +16.5 pts.
Since September 23, 2026, No has traded between 75.0% and 91.5%. It opened at 81.5% and last traded at 81.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 81.5% |
No is favored at 75.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 75¢ | 75.0% | -3.0 pts | $39 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 25¢ | 25.0% | +3.0 pts | $39 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 46¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$39 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Spider-Man: Brand New Day"'s domestic box office gross officially surpasses $1,000,000,000 (one billion dollars) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values through the specified date are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 33 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tricky-Usher | No | 33 | $25 |
| Adorable-Wrap-Penny | Yes | 17 | $4 |
| Odd-Sultan | Yes | 6 | $1 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | Yes | 6 | $1 |
| Aware-Combine | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 06, 05:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $1 |
| Sep 29, 02:21 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Sep 28, 12:28 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $3 |
| Sep 28, 01:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $1 |
| Sep 24, 06:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 75.0%. Next is Yes at 25.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-spider-man-brand-new-day-cross-1b-in-domestic-box-office?via=bro
$39 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.the-numbers.com/.
No, priced at 75.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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