As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 31.0% in Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...? — $1.15M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 31.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -7.0 pts; past week: -14.0 pts; past month: -38.0 pts.
Since June 09, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 38.0% and 74.0%. It opened at 57.5% and last traded at 38.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 65.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 38.0% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 31.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 31¢ | 31.0% | -7.0 pts | $108 | 0.0% |
| June 30, 2027 | 18¢ | 17.5% | -6.5 pts | $75 | 0.0% |
| December 31, 2026 | 7¢ | 7.3% | +2.4 pts | $1.15M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 44¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.15M has been traded on this event in total, $17.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 39 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 39 | $12 |
| Rotten-Atheist | No | 21 | $14 |
| Known-Use | No | 21 | $14 |
| Idolized-Skirt | Yes | 5 | $2 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | No | 4 | $3 |
| Frayed-Tugboat-Contact | Yes | 1 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.8% | $162 |
| Oct 24, 09:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.7% | $93 |
| Oct 24, 08:16 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.5% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:15 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.6% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 08:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.5% | $51 |
| Oct 24, 08:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.4% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.2% | $55 |
| Oct 24, 08:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.3% | $55 |
| Oct 24, 07:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.4% | $67 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.7% | $91 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 31.0%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 17.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-before-2027?via=bro
$1.15M in total volume, with $17.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX.
December 31, 2027, priced at 31.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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