As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 82.5% in Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026? — $3.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 82.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -12.5 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.
Since August 19, 2026, No has traded between 40.5% and 90.5%. It opened at 84.0% and last traded at 82.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 82.5% |
No is favored at 82.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 82¢ | 82.5% | +1.5 pts | $3.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 18¢ | 17.5% | -1.5 pts | $3.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No". The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls. Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 274 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 274 | $48 |
| Superior-Olive | No | 252 | $208 |
| Big-Repair | No | 129 | $106 |
| Full-Carriage-Hardship | Yes | 50 | $9 |
| Different-Windshield | No | 40 | $33 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 21 | $4 |
| Buttery-Strife | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Apt-Antecedent | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Guilty-Vulture | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Impassioned-Chastity | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 08:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $4 |
| Oct 18, 12:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $93 |
| Oct 18, 12:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $15 |
| Oct 17, 07:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $14 |
| Oct 17, 07:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 17, 11:25 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 16, 08:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $29 |
| Oct 16, 01:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $11 |
| Oct 16, 11:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 67.0% | $13 |
| Oct 16, 11:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 82.5%. Next is Yes at 17.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-break-its-record-for-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-in-2026-1787153419673?via=bro
$3.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters.
No, priced at 82.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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