As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 0.2 to 0.3% at 37.0% in Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM) — $35.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 0.2 to 0.3%, is priced at 37.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: -1.5 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, 0.2 to 0.3% has traded between 14.5% and 49.0%. It opened at 15.0% and last traded at 37.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 37.0% |
0.2 to 0.3% is favored at 37.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2 to 0.3% | 37¢ | 37.0% | +3.0 pts | $9.5K | 26.6% |
| 0.0 to 0.1% | 32¢ | 32.5% | -3.5 pts | $14.7K | 41.2% |
| 0.4 to 0.5% | 16¢ | 16.0% | — | $7.7K | 21.7% |
| <-0.2% | 5¢ | 5.2% | -1.2 pts | $1.3K | 3.7% |
| 0.6%+ | 3¢ | 2.7% | — | $1.3K | 3.6% |
| -0.2 to -0.1% | 2¢ | 2.5% | -2.8 pts | $1.1K | 3.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 36¢ / ask 38¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$35.7K has been traded on this event in total, $612 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 30, 2026, 08:30 AM ET.
This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending August 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for August 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 951 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 951 | $599 |
| Good-Natured-Angora | Yes | 239 | $88 |
| Simple-Attack | Yes | 233 | $86 |
| Arid-Cinema | No | 150 | $94 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 126 | $47 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 121 | $45 |
| Fitting-Cost | Yes | 121 | $45 |
| Sizzling-Incandescence | Yes | 87 | $32 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 82 | $52 |
| Clear-Cut-Tuna | Yes | 65 | $24 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 08:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 68.1% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.7% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 05:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 64.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 0.2 to 0.3% at 37.0%. Next is 0.0 to 0.1% at 32.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-gdp-august-2026-mom?via=bro
$35.7K in total volume, with $612 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 30, 2026, 08:30 AM ET. It resolves based on https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm.
0.2 to 0.3%, priced at 37.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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