As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑ 1540 at 51.9% in Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? — $224.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑ 1540, is priced at 51.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +8.9 pts; past month: +38.6 pts.
Since July 23, 2026, ↑ 1540 has traded between 8.8% and 61.0%. It opened at 61.0% and last traded at 49.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 40.9% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 38.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 46.9% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 46.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 44.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 49.5% |
↑ 1540 is favored at 51.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 1540 | 52¢ | 51.9% | +2.5 pts | $7.2K | 3.2% |
| ↑ 1550 | 33¢ | 33.0% | — | $54.6K | 24.3% |
| ↑ 1600 | 13¢ | 12.8% | — | $26.8K | 11.9% |
| ↑ 1650 | 4¢ | 4.2% | +0.1 pts | $9.6K | 4.3% |
| ↑ 1700 | 3¢ | 2.8% | -1.3 pts | $9.4K | 4.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 28¢ (bid 38¢ / ask 66¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$224.5K has been traded on this event in total, $115 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://lmarena.ai/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 440 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver-Eyebrows-Instruction | Yes | 440 | $228 |
| Boiling-Feel | No | 418 | $201 |
| Reflecting-Pantology | No | 375 | $180 |
| Giving-Task | No | 337 | $162 |
| Grand-Side-Curio | Yes | 307 | $159 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 233 | $121 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 177 | $92 |
| Curvy-Ectoderm | Yes | 125 | $65 |
| Golden-Unemployment | No | 123 | $59 |
| Slow-Exhibit | Yes | 101 | $52 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.2% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 06:29 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $11 |
| Oct 20, 08:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 12:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.5% | $43 |
| Oct 15, 11:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.0% | $333 |
| Oct 15, 03:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.6% | $37 |
| Oct 15, 02:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 02:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $4 |
| Oct 15, 02:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 02:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.9% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑ 1540 at 51.9%. Next is ↑ 1550 at 33.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/chatbot-arena-how-high-will-ai-score-by-december-31?via=bro
$224.5K in total volume, with $115 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://lmarena.ai/.
↑ 1540, priced at 51.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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