As of October 24, 2026, 08:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.5% in ECB rate cut in 2026? — $36.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts.
Since December 23, 2025, No has traded between 32.5% and 96.0%. It opened at 32.5% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.5% |
No is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 95.5% | — | $36.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $36.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$36.7K has been traded on this event in total, $35 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,180 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualified-Hypothermia | Yes | 5,180 | $233 |
| Miniature-Ban | No | 1,996 | $1.9K |
| Sardonic-Cue | No | 1,222 | $1.2K |
| Affectionate-Bob | No | 1,205 | $1.2K |
| Cheery-Preparation | No | 1,074 | $1.0K |
| Showy-Member | Yes | 994 | $45 |
| Defensive-Plunger | No | 906 | $865 |
| Complex-Expansionism | Yes | 800 | $36 |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 541 | $517 |
| Overlooked-Guilty | No | 500 | $477 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $9 |
| Oct 16, 07:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $380 |
| Oct 12, 03:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 09, 02:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $180 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.5%. Next is Yes at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ecb-rate-cut-in-2026?via=bro
$36.7K in total volume, with $35 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html.
No, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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