As of October 24, 2026, 09:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mercedes at 90.5% in United States Grand Prix: Constructor Pole Position — $286 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mercedes, is priced at 90.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +32.5 pts; past week: +55.5 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, Mercedes has traded between 35.0% and 58.0%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 58.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 58.0% |
Mercedes is favored at 90.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 90¢ | 90.5% | +32.5 pts | $87 | 30.4% |
| Racing Bulls | 10¢ | 10.0% | +9.5 pts | $28 | 9.6% |
| Alpine | 10¢ | 10.0% | +9.4 pts | $17 | 6.1% |
| Aston Martin | 10¢ | 9.5% | -15.0 pts | $17 | 6.1% |
| Williams | 10¢ | 9.5% | -15.0 pts | $17 | 6.1% |
| Audi Revolut | 10¢ | 9.5% | -15.0 pts | $17 | 6.1% |
| Cadillac | 10¢ | 9.5% | -15.0 pts | $17 | 6.1% |
| Tgr Haas | 10¢ | 9.5% | -15.0 pts | $17 | 6.1% |
| Mclaren Mastercard | 0¢ | 0.5% | -49.0 pts | $42 | 14.9% |
| Red Bull | 0¢ | 0.5% | -53.5 pts | $10 | 3.6% |
| Ferrari | 0¢ | 0.1% | -49.5 pts | $14 | 4.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 19¢ (bid 81¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$286 has been traded on this event in total, $170 of it in the last 24 hours, across 12 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 05:00 PM ET.
This is a polymarket on the constructor team that achieves pole position at the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 24, 2026. If the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Oct 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve in favor of the constructor team that is officially recognized by Formula 1 as having set the fastest time during the qualifying session for the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix. The market will be settled based on the FIA's official qualifying results, regardless of any subsequent penalties, disqualifications, or changes to the starting grid. For example, if a constructor team sets the fastest qualifying time but later receives a grid penalty or is moved down the starting order, the market will still resolve to “Yes” for that constructor team. The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 79 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| General-Robin | No | 79 | $7 |
| Smart-Rheumatism | Yes | 71 | $64 |
| Flickering-Chime | No | 10 | $1 |
| Devoted-Trail | Yes | 7 | $6 |
| Identical-Catch | Yes | 5 | $5 |
| Reckless-Lantern-Shaker | Yes | 5 | $5 |
| Fantastic-Badger-Subscription | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 09:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 09:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 06:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 06:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.5% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 11:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $37 |
| Oct 23, 02:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.1% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mercedes at 90.5%. Next is Racing Bulls at 10.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/f1-united-states-grand-prix-constructor-pole-position-2026-10-24?via=bro
$286 in total volume, with $170 traded in the last 24 hours across 12 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 05:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.
Mercedes, priced at 90.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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