As of October 24, 2026, 09:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Norris vs Piastri: Norris at 74.5% in United States Grand Prix: Head-to-Head — $22 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Norris vs Piastri: Norris, is priced at 74.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +24.5 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, Norris vs Piastri: Norris has traded between 49.5% and 74.5%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 74.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 74.5% |
Norris vs Piastri: Norris is favored at 74.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris vs Piastri: Norris | 74¢ | 74.5% | — | $2 | 9.1% |
| Russell vs Antonelli: Antonelli | 74¢ | 74.5% | +19.5 pts | $5 | 22.7% |
| Leclerc vs Piastri: Leclerc | 74¢ | 74.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Leclerc vs Norris: Leclerc | 70¢ | 69.5% | +19.5 pts | $5 | 22.7% |
| Verstappen vs Hadjar: Verstappen | 68¢ | 67.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Colapinto vs Gasly: Gasly | 64¢ | 64.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Albon vs Jr.: Jr. | 64¢ | 64.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Piastri vs Russell: Russell | 64¢ | 64.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Bortoleto vs Hulkenberg: Hulkenberg | 60¢ | 59.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Alonso vs Stroll: Alonso | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Alonso vs Stroll: Stroll | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Perez vs Bottas: Perez | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Perez vs Bottas: Bottas | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Leclerc vs Hamilton: Leclerc | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Leclerc vs Hamilton: Hamilton | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ocon vs Bearman: Ocon | 50¢ | 50.0% | +9.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ocon vs Bearman: Bearman | 50¢ | 50.0% | -9.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Leclerc vs Verstappen: Leclerc | 50¢ | 50.0% | +24.5 pts | $5 | 22.7% |
| Leclerc vs Verstappen: Verstappen | 50¢ | 50.0% | -24.5 pts | $5 | 22.7% |
| Leclerc vs Russell: Leclerc | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Leclerc vs Russell: Russell | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Norris vs Verstappen: Norris | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Norris vs Verstappen: Verstappen | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Norris vs Hamilton: Norris | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Norris vs Hamilton: Hamilton | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Norris vs Russell: Norris | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Norris vs Russell: Russell | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Verstappen vs Hamilton: Verstappen | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Verstappen vs Hamilton: Hamilton | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Verstappen vs Piastri: Verstappen | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Verstappen vs Piastri: Piastri | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Verstappen vs Russell: Verstappen | 50¢ | 50.0% | -24.5 pts | $5 | 22.7% |
| Verstappen vs Russell: Russell | 50¢ | 50.0% | +24.5 pts | $5 | 22.7% |
| Hamilton vs Piastri: Hamilton | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Hamilton vs Piastri: Piastri | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Hamilton vs Russell: Hamilton | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Hamilton vs Russell: Russell | 50¢ | 50.0% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Bortoleto vs Hulkenberg: Bortoleto | 40¢ | 40.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Colapinto vs Gasly: Colapinto | 36¢ | 35.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Albon vs Jr.: Albon | 36¢ | 35.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Piastri vs Russell: Piastri | 36¢ | 35.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Verstappen vs Hadjar: Hadjar | 32¢ | 32.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Leclerc vs Norris: Norris | 30¢ | 30.5% | -19.5 pts | $5 | 22.7% |
| Norris vs Piastri: Piastri | 26¢ | 25.5% | — | $2 | 9.1% |
| Russell vs Antonelli: Russell | 26¢ | 25.5% | -19.5 pts | $5 | 22.7% |
| Leclerc vs Piastri: Piastri | 26¢ | 25.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 49¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22 has been traded on this event in total, $22 of it in the last 24 hours, across 23 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 03:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the driver who finishes ahead of the other at the F1 United States Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If Norris finishes ahead of Piastri, this market will resolve to "Norris". If Piastri finishes ahead of Norris, this market will resolve to "Piastri". In the case of a tie between two drivers, this market will resolve 50-50. If the United States Grand Prix is postponed this market will remain open until the vent has been completed. If the United States Grand Prix is permanently canceled this market will resolve 50-50. If either driver fails to finish the race (including DNF, DSQ, or any other non-finish), the driver who completes more laps will be considered to have finished ahead. If both drivers complete the same number of laps, this market will resolve 50-50, regardless of the order in which they retired. This rule applies even if one or both drivers are unclassified in the FIA “Final Classification.” This market will resolve based on the "Final Classification" published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The "Final Classification" is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2 shares of Norris.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fine-Ficlet-Inability | Norris | 2 | $1 |
| 0x9a41ca8d… | Piastri | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:55 PM ET | Leclerc | BUY | 60.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:54 PM ET | Antonelli | BUY | 60.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 06:24 AM ET | Leclerc | BUY | 50.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is Norris vs Piastri: Norris at 74.5%. Next is Russell vs Antonelli: Antonelli at 74.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/f1-united-states-grand-prix-h2h-2026-10-25?via=bro
$22 in total volume, with $22 traded in the last 24 hours across 23 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 03:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.
Norris vs Piastri: Norris, priced at 74.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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