Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

United States Grand Prix: Head-to-Head

As of October 24, 2026, 09:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Norris vs Piastri: Norris at 74.5% in United States Grand Prix: Head-to-Head — $22 traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $22.
Leading outcome
Norris vs Piastri: Norris
74%
A 74.5% price implies roughly a 74-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +24.5 pts
Norris vs Piastri: Norris74.5%
Russell vs Antonelli: Antonelli74.5%
Bid
50¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
49¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 03, 2026: 49.5% – 74.5% · Opened at 49.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
United States Grand Prix: Head-to-Head
Category
Formula 1, f1, Sports, Grand Prix, Hide From New
Scheduled end
November 01, 2026, 03:00 PM ET
Total volume
$22
Volume (24h)
$22
Liquidity
$75
Markets
23
Leading outcome
Norris vs Piastri: Norris — 74.5%
Resolution source
https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Norris vs Piastri: Norris, is priced at 74.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +24.5 pts.

Since October 03, 2026, Norris vs Piastri: Norris has traded between 49.5% and 74.5%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 74.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202650.0%
Oct 18, 202650.0%
Oct 19, 202659.5%
Oct 20, 202659.5%
Oct 23, 202674.5%
Oct 24, 202674.5%
Oct 24, 202674.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Norris vs Piastri: Norris is favored at 74.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Norris vs Piastri: Norris74¢74.5%—$29.1%
Russell vs Antonelli: Antonelli74¢74.5%+19.5 pts$522.7%
Leclerc vs Piastri: Leclerc74¢74.5%—$00.0%
Leclerc vs Norris: Leclerc70¢69.5%+19.5 pts$522.7%
Verstappen vs Hadjar: Verstappen68¢67.5%—$00.0%
Colapinto vs Gasly: Gasly64¢64.5%—$00.0%
Albon vs Jr.: Jr.64¢64.5%—$00.0%
Piastri vs Russell: Russell64¢64.5%—$00.0%
Bortoleto vs Hulkenberg: Hulkenberg60¢59.5%—$00.0%
Alonso vs Stroll: Alonso50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Alonso vs Stroll: Stroll50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Perez vs Bottas: Perez50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Perez vs Bottas: Bottas50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Leclerc vs Hamilton: Leclerc50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Leclerc vs Hamilton: Hamilton50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Ocon vs Bearman: Ocon50¢50.0%+9.5 pts$00.0%
Ocon vs Bearman: Bearman50¢50.0%-9.5 pts$00.0%
Leclerc vs Verstappen: Leclerc50¢50.0%+24.5 pts$522.7%
Leclerc vs Verstappen: Verstappen50¢50.0%-24.5 pts$522.7%
Leclerc vs Russell: Leclerc50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Leclerc vs Russell: Russell50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Norris vs Verstappen: Norris50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Norris vs Verstappen: Verstappen50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Norris vs Hamilton: Norris50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Norris vs Hamilton: Hamilton50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Norris vs Russell: Norris50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Norris vs Russell: Russell50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Verstappen vs Hamilton: Verstappen50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Verstappen vs Hamilton: Hamilton50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Verstappen vs Piastri: Verstappen50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Verstappen vs Piastri: Piastri50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Verstappen vs Russell: Verstappen50¢50.0%-24.5 pts$522.7%
Verstappen vs Russell: Russell50¢50.0%+24.5 pts$522.7%
Hamilton vs Piastri: Hamilton50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Hamilton vs Piastri: Piastri50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Hamilton vs Russell: Hamilton50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Hamilton vs Russell: Russell50¢50.0%—$00.0%
Bortoleto vs Hulkenberg: Bortoleto40¢40.5%—$00.0%
Colapinto vs Gasly: Colapinto36¢35.5%—$00.0%
Albon vs Jr.: Albon36¢35.5%—$00.0%
Piastri vs Russell: Piastri36¢35.5%—$00.0%
Verstappen vs Hadjar: Hadjar32¢32.5%—$00.0%
Leclerc vs Norris: Norris30¢30.5%-19.5 pts$522.7%
Norris vs Piastri: Piastri26¢25.5%—$29.1%
Russell vs Antonelli: Russell26¢25.5%-19.5 pts$522.7%
Leclerc vs Piastri: Piastri26¢25.5%—$00.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 49¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$22 has been traded on this event in total, $22 of it in the last 24 hours, across 23 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 03:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the driver who finishes ahead of the other at the F1 United States Grand Prix, scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If Norris finishes ahead of Piastri, this market will resolve to "Norris". If Piastri finishes ahead of Norris, this market will resolve to "Piastri". In the case of a tie between two drivers, this market will resolve 50-50. If the United States Grand Prix is postponed this market will remain open until the vent has been completed. If the United States Grand Prix is permanently canceled this market will resolve 50-50. If either driver fails to finish the race (including DNF, DSQ, or any other non-finish), the driver who completes more laps will be considered to have finished ahead. If both drivers complete the same number of laps, this market will resolve 50-50, regardless of the order in which they retired. This rule applies even if one or both drivers are unclassified in the FIA “Final Classification.” This market will resolve based on the "Final Classification" published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The "Final Classification" is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the "Final Classification" will not affect market resolution. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2 shares of Norris.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Fine-Ficlet-InabilityNorris2$1
0x9a41ca8d…Piastri2$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Antonelli — $3 at 60.0%BUY Leclerc — $3 at 60.0%BUY Leclerc — $2 at 50.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:55 PM ETLeclercBUY60.0%$3
Oct 24, 05:54 PM ETAntonelliBUY60.0%$3
Oct 24, 06:24 AM ETLeclercBUY50.0%$2

Related markets

More Formula 1

F1 Constructors' Champion

Mercedes 98.2% · 24H VOL $10.9K

United States Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish

Max Verstappen 79.0% · 24H VOL $3.9K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of United States Grand Prix: Head-to-Head?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is Norris vs Piastri: Norris at 74.5%. Next is Russell vs Antonelli: Antonelli at 74.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/f1-united-states-grand-prix-h2h-2026-10-25?via=bro

How much money has been traded on United States Grand Prix: Head-to-Head?

$22 in total volume, with $22 traded in the last 24 hours across 23 markets.

When does United States Grand Prix: Head-to-Head end?

The market is scheduled to end November 01, 2026, 03:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races.

What is the most likely outcome of United States Grand Prix: Head-to-Head, according to Polymarket traders?

Norris vs Piastri: Norris, priced at 74.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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