As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 53.5% in F1: Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship? — $5.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 53.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -4.5 pts; past month: -14.0 pts.
Since August 29, 2026, Yes has traded between 38.5% and 89.5%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 53.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 53.5% |
Yes is favored at 53.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54¢ | 53.5% | -1.0 pts | $5.8K | 100.0% |
| No | 46¢ | 46.5% | +1.0 pts | $5.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 45¢ (bid 31¢ / ask 76¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.8K has been traded on this event in total, $4 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carlos Sainz is classified ahead of Fernando Alonso in the final official 2026 FIA Formula One World Drivers' Championship standings. This market will resolve to "No" if Fernando Alonso is classified ahead of Carlos Sainz. The final standings will be those published by the FIA at the conclusion of the 2026 season, including any tiebreakers applied under FIA rules and any penalties or adjustments reflected in that final classification. Both drivers will be ranked per that classification regardless of how many races either driver starts or completes. If the 2026 Formula One season is cancelled, postponed after December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no final classification is published within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the final classification does not rank both drivers, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.fia.com
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 775 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp-Wax | No | 775 | $360 |
| Sore-Role | Yes | 484 | $259 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 325 | $151 |
| Barren-Sleuth | Yes | 257 | $137 |
| Feline-Tabernacle | Yes | 193 | $103 |
| Different-Windshield | Yes | 176 | $94 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 125 | $58 |
| Frightening-Lever | No | 78 | $36 |
| Reliable-Makeover | No | 61 | $29 |
| Grumpy-Eel | Yes | 61 | $33 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 09:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $2 |
| Oct 11, 08:00 AM ET | No | SELL | 11.0% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 01:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $10 |
| Oct 09, 09:03 AM ET | No | BUY | 61.2% | $8 |
| Oct 04, 12:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.8% | $128 |
| Oct 04, 12:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 53.5%. Next is No at 46.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/f1-will-carlos-sainz-finish-ahead-of-fernando-alonso-in-the-2026-drivers-championship?via=bro
$5.8K in total volume, with $4 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fia.com.
Yes, priced at 53.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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