As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft at 81.0% in Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026? — $47.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft, is priced at 81.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +54.5 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft has traded between 18.5% and 92.5%. It opened at 20.0% and last traded at 81.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 81.0% |
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft is favored at 81.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft | 81¢ | 81.0% | -2.0 pts | $14.8K | 31.0% |
| Below 4,189.3 ft | 13¢ | 13.1% | -2.9 pts | $15.9K | 33.4% |
| 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft | 3¢ | 3.1% | +0.7 pts | $12.9K | 27.2% |
| 4,189.7 ft or more | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $4.0K | 8.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$47.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,767 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,767 | $336 |
| Scientific-Sophomore | Yes | 990 | $802 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 539 | $102 |
| Unwritten-Hybridization | Yes | 414 | $335 |
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 350 | $284 |
| 0xf51b1d56… | Yes | 307 | $249 |
| Wiggly-Photo | Yes | 210 | $170 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 208 | $40 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 141 | $114 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 107 | $86 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.5% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 01:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.2% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.7% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.5% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 80.0% | $31 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 81.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 09:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.8% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft at 81.0%. Next is Below 4,189.3 ft at 13.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-great-salt-lake-elevation-in-2026?via=bro
$47.6K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000¶meterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb.
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft, priced at 81.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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