Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft at 81.0% in Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026? — $47.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.3K.
Leading outcome
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft
81%
A 81.0% price implies roughly a 81-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.0 pts7D +2.0 pts30D +54.5 pts
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft81.0%
Below 4,189.3 ft13.1%
Bid
80¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 22, 2026: 18.5% – 92.5% · Opened at 20.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
Category
Drought, Weather, climate
Scheduled end
January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$47.6K
Volume (24h)
$1.3K
Liquidity
$11.6K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft — 81.0%
Resolution source
https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000&parameterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft, is priced at 81.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +54.5 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft has traded between 18.5% and 92.5%. It opened at 20.0% and last traded at 81.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202679.0%
Oct 18, 202683.5%
Oct 19, 202692.5%
Oct 20, 202680.5%
Oct 22, 202683.5%
Oct 23, 202683.0%
Oct 24, 202681.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft is favored at 81.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft81¢81.0%-2.0 pts$14.8K31.0%
Below 4,189.3 ft13¢13.1%-2.9 pts$15.9K33.4%
4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft3¢3.1%+0.7 pts$12.9K27.2%
4,189.7 ft or more0¢0.4%—$4.0K8.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$47.6K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean lake elevation, in feet above the National Geodetic Vertical Datum of 1929, recorded at the Great Salt Lake at Saltair Boat Harbor, UT gage (USGS site 10010000) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 62614. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the year decides this market, including readings already recorded earlier in 2026; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. USGS reports lake elevation at this gage to 1 decimal place, and values will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Should USGS publish a value carrying more decimal places, it will first be rounded half up to 1 decimal place, so that 4,189.45 ft becomes 4,189.5 ft. The ranges cover consecutive one-decimal values and leave none out, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4,189.3 ft resolves the range beginning at 4,189.3 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000&parameterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,767 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No1,767$336
Scientific-SophomoreYes990$802
Snappy-RoosterNo539$102
Unwritten-HybridizationYes414$335
Teeming-PuppetYes350$284
0xf51b1d56…Yes307$249
Wiggly-PhotoYes210$170
Belated-GlueNo208$40
Fair-TanYes141$114
Required-HornYes107$86

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $319 at 87.0%BUY No — $173 at 85.2%BUY No — $111 at 95.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:35 PM ETYesSELL14.5%$12
Oct 24, 01:50 PM ETNoBUY85.0%$8
Oct 24, 01:29 PM ETYesBUY12.5%$1
Oct 24, 01:29 PM ETYesBUY12.2%$21
Oct 24, 01:29 PM ETYesBUY11.7%$1
Oct 24, 01:29 PM ETYesBUY11.5%$6
Oct 24, 01:17 PM ETYesSELL80.0%$31
Oct 24, 01:10 PM ETYesBUY81.0%$8
Oct 24, 01:10 PM ETYesBUY81.0%$8
Oct 24, 09:24 AM ETNoSELL86.8%$0

Related markets

More Drought

When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?

October 1 - 31, 2026 77.0% · 24H VOL $5.5K

Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30?

-1.00 to 0.99 ft 46.5% · 24H VOL $1.0K

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

4.00 to 4.99 ft 33.0% · 24H VOL $838

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft at 81.0%. Next is Below 4,189.3 ft at 13.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-great-salt-lake-elevation-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026??

$47.6K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=10010000&parameterCd=62614&startDT=2026-01-01&endDT=2026-12-31&format=rdb.

What is the most likely outcome of Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft, priced at 81.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.