As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price -1.00 to 0.99 ft at 46.5% in Lowest Mississippi level at St. Louis by November 30? — $54.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, -1.00 to 0.99 ft, is priced at 46.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +23.0 pts; past month: +26.0 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, -1.00 to 0.99 ft has traded between 16.5% and 52.0%. It opened at 28.5% and last traded at 46.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 21.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 27.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 24.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 46.5% |
-1.00 to 0.99 ft is favored at 46.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.00 to 0.99 ft | 46¢ | 46.5% | +2.5 pts | $13.2K | 24.4% |
| -3.00 to -1.01 ft | 28¢ | 27.7% | -5.6 pts | $13.2K | 24.3% |
| Below -3.00 ft | 14¢ | 13.9% | +5.2 pts | $2.8K | 5.2% |
| 3.00 ft or more | 4¢ | 3.8% | +2.6 pts | $13.3K | 24.4% |
| 1.00 to 2.99 ft | 3¢ | 2.7% | -2.5 pts | $11.8K | 21.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 47¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$54.3K has been traded on this event in total, $1.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the lowest gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at St. Louis, MO streamgage (USGS site 07010000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 30800. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. Values will be used exactly as published by USGS, without rounding. USGS reports gage height at this gage to 2 decimal places. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly -1.00 ft resolves the range beginning at -1.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered, except where the correction provision below applies. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,041 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,041 | $1.1K |
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 1,583 | $736 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 565 | $263 |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | No | 513 | $275 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 311 | $145 |
| Scientific-Sophomore | No | 200 | $107 |
| Known-Use | No | 200 | $107 |
| Idealistic-Valance | Yes | 170 | $79 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 130 | $61 |
| Candid-Encirclement | Yes | 123 | $57 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 67.2% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.5% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 02:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 10:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 55.0% | $28 |
| Oct 23, 06:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 64.7% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 06:37 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is -1.00 to 0.99 ft at 46.5%. Next is -3.00 to -1.01 ft at 27.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-mississippi-level-at-st-louis-by-november-30?via=bro
$54.3K in total volume, with $1.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07010000¶meterCd=00065&statCd=30800&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb.
-1.00 to 0.99 ft, priced at 46.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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