Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.00 to 4.99 ft at 33.0% in Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30? — $39.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $838.
Leading outcome
4.00 to 4.99 ft
33%
A 33.0% price implies roughly a 33-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.9 pts7D +20.5 pts30D +19.5 pts
4.00 to 4.99 ft33.0%
5.00 to 5.99 ft32.5%
Bid
32¢
Ask
34¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 22, 2026: 4.0% – 48.5% · Opened at 26.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?
Category
Drought, Weather, climate
Scheduled end
December 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$39.6K
Volume (24h)
$838
Liquidity
$5.2K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
4.00 to 4.99 ft — 33.0%
Resolution source
https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000&parameterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 4.00 to 4.99 ft, is priced at 33.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.9 pts; past week: +20.5 pts; past month: +19.5 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, 4.00 to 4.99 ft has traded between 4.0% and 48.5%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 33.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202615.2%
Oct 16, 202613.8%
Oct 18, 202610.8%
Oct 19, 20268.8%
Oct 20, 202619.3%
Oct 23, 202633.8%
Oct 24, 202633.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

4.00 to 4.99 ft is favored at 33.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
4.00 to 4.99 ft33¢33.0%-0.9 pts$8.1K20.5%
5.00 to 5.99 ft32¢32.5%+8.5 pts$11.9K30.0%
6.00 ft or more14¢13.5%-11.9 pts$13.1K33.2%
3.00 to 3.99 ft6¢5.6%+0.1 pts$3.9K10.0%
Below 3.00 ft2¢2.1%-0.1 pts$2.5K6.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 34¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$39.6K has been traded on this event in total, $838 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the lowest daily mean gage height (river level), in feet, recorded at the Mississippi River at Baton Rouge, LA streamgage (USGS site 07374000) between market creation and November 30, 2026, as published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for parameter code 00065 under statistic code 00003 (daily mean). The lowest daily reading in the window decides this market; the level does not need to be sustained. If USGS does not publish a reading for one or more days, this market will resolve according to the lowest reading among the days that are published. USGS reports gage height to 2 decimal places, and this is the precision used to resolve this market. Each range includes both of its stated bounds and consecutive ranges are contiguous, so every reading falls in exactly one range: a lowest reading of exactly 4.00 ft resolves the range beginning at 4.00 ft to "Yes" and every other range to "No". The resolution source is the USGS Daily Values service for site 07374000, available here: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000&parameterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb This market will resolve on the values published at the time of resolution, whether flagged provisional ("P") or approved ("A"); revisions published afterward will not be considered. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000&parameterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,508 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Teeming-PuppetYes1,508$498
0xa5ef39c3…No1,338$896
0x14a1783e…No660$442
Gleaming-HandlebarYes180$59
0xf51b1d56…Yes160$53
Snappy-RoosterNo137$92
Creamy-GeologyNo100$67
Scientific-SophomoreNo94$63
Giving-MobsterYes89$29
0x3a9dad53…Yes72$24

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $341 at 68.0%BUY Yes — $142 at 27.2%BUY Yes — $141 at 29.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:02 PM ETNoSELL65.9%$7
Oct 24, 01:20 PM ETNoBUY68.0%$7
Oct 24, 01:20 PM ETNoBUY67.0%$34
Oct 24, 11:45 AM ETNoSELL64.0%$25
Oct 24, 11:30 AM ETNoSELL65.0%$4
Oct 24, 11:30 AM ETNoSELL65.0%$4
Oct 24, 10:45 AM ETYesBUY27.2%$142
Oct 24, 05:20 AM ETNoSELL65.8%$22
Oct 24, 04:41 AM ETNoBUY75.0%$32
Oct 24, 04:40 AM ETYesSELL25.0%$11

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.00 to 4.99 ft at 33.0%. Next is 5.00 to 5.99 ft at 32.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lowest-mississippi-level-at-baton-rouge-by-november-30?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30??

$39.6K in total volume, with $838 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 01, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/dv/?sites=07374000&parameterCd=00065&statCd=00003&startDT=2026-09-21&endDT=2026-11-30&format=rdb.

What is the most likely outcome of Lowest Mississippi level at Baton Rouge by November 30?, according to Polymarket traders?

4.00 to 4.99 ft, priced at 33.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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