As of October 24, 2026, 08:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $480 at 56.0% in Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above ___ end of October? — $3.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $480, is priced at 56.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +7.0 pts; past week: -29.5 pts.
Since September 25, 2026, $480 has traded between 48.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 51.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 51.0% |
$480 is favored at 56.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $480 | 56¢ | 56.0% | +7.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $510 | 54¢ | 53.5% | +4.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $450 | 52¢ | 51.6% | +1.6 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $435 | 50¢ | 50.5% | -0.4 pts | $93 | 2.6% |
| $540 | 50¢ | 50.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| $465 | 50¢ | 50.2% | -0.2 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $525 | 50¢ | 49.5% | +0.5 pts | $443 | 12.4% |
| $495 | 48¢ | 48.5% | -2.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $555 | 46¢ | 46.0% | -2.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $570 | 45¢ | 45.0% | -4.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $585 | 44¢ | 43.5% | -4.5 pts | $100 | 2.8% |
| $600 | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $2.9K | 82.2% |
| $615 | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 76¢ (bid 18¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 30, 2026, 04:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on the final trading day of October 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session of the final trading day of the month, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 07:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $6 |
| Oct 13, 07:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $30 |
| Oct 13, 05:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $581 |
| Oct 12, 04:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $625 |
| Oct 09, 04:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 09, 04:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $2 |
| Oct 09, 04:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $485 |
| Oct 09, 04:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $485 |
| Oct 08, 12:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $12 |
| Oct 05, 09:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 56.0% | $248 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is $480 at 56.0%. Next is $510 at 53.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/msft-above-in-october-2026?via=bro
$3.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 30, 2026, 04:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
$480, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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