As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 16 at 91.5% in Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...? — $1.13M traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 16, is priced at 91.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, October 16 has traded between 16.0% and 94.0%. It opened at 27.5% and last traded at 91.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 91.5% |
October 16 is favored at 91.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16 | 92¢ | 91.5% | +4.5 pts | $1.8K | 0.2% |
| October 19 | 88¢ | 87.5% | +15.5 pts | $2.3K | 0.2% |
| October 21 | 87¢ | 87.0% | +6.0 pts | $5.3K | 0.5% |
| October 23 | 86¢ | 86.5% | +3.0 pts | $12.1K | 1.1% |
| October 18 | 86¢ | 86.0% | +3.0 pts | $3.5K | 0.3% |
| October 22 | 85¢ | 85.0% | +13.0 pts | $3.5K | 0.3% |
| October 6 | 84¢ | 84.0% | — | $56.5K | 5.0% |
| October 31 | 83¢ | 83.0% | +22.0 pts | $9.2K | 0.8% |
| October 26 | 82¢ | 81.5% | +18.5 pts | $7.3K | 0.6% |
| October 17 | 80¢ | 80.5% | -8.0 pts | $1.9K | 0.2% |
| October 25 | 77¢ | 77.0% | +13.0 pts | $9.1K | 0.8% |
| October 27 | 76¢ | 75.5% | +11.5 pts | $8.3K | 0.7% |
| October 4 | 75¢ | 75.3% | -7.3 pts | $4.6K | 0.4% |
| October 8 | 73¢ | 73.0% | -3.5 pts | $76.6K | 6.8% |
| October 28 | 70¢ | 70.0% | +7.0 pts | $5.2K | 0.5% |
| October 29 | 70¢ | 70.0% | +11.5 pts | $88.6K | 7.9% |
| October 24 | 68¢ | 68.5% | +12.0 pts | $3.8K | 0.3% |
| October 30 | 67¢ | 67.0% | +4.5 pts | $90.0K | 8.0% |
| October 12 | 60¢ | 60.0% | +3.0 pts | $63.8K | 5.7% |
| October 11 | 58¢ | 58.5% | +7.0 pts | $40.2K | 3.6% |
| October 14 | 51¢ | 51.0% | -0.5 pts | $787 | 0.1% |
| October 15 | 50¢ | 50.5% | -0.5 pts | $705 | 0.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 88¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.13M has been traded on this event in total, $7.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 22 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia takes a qualifying military action against Yemen on the specified date, Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Saudi Arabia, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Saudi Arabia. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Saudi Arabia directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 232 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 232 | $20 |
| Cool-Pattypan | Yes | 150 | $137 |
| Antique-Frame | Yes | 148 | $136 |
| Known-Use | No | 101 | $9 |
| Nippy-Advocate | Yes | 51 | $47 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | No | 50 | $4 |
| Quarrelsome-Filth | No | 38 | $3 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 34 | $31 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | Yes | 24 | $22 |
| Blissful-Login | Yes | 20 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 28.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:05 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 03:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 03:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 28.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 03:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.8% | $169 |
| Oct 24, 03:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $107 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.0% | $597 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 16 at 91.5%. Next is October 19 at 87.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-arabia-military-action-against-yemen-on-october-2026?via=bro
$1.13M in total volume, with $7.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 22 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 16, priced at 91.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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