As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 19.5% in Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...? — $476.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 19.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: -13.0 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, December 31 has traded between 17.0% and 31.5%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 19.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.5% |
December 31 is favored at 19.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 20¢ | 19.5% | +2.5 pts | $218.0K | 45.7% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.1 pts | $234.1K | 49.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$476.6K has been traded on this event in total, $15.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. All listed countries/parties must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for a Yes resolution. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 49,514 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unfolded-Pocketwatch | No | 49,514 | $39.9K |
| Tough-Conscience | Yes | 12,227 | $2.4K |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 11,936 | $2.3K |
| Puny-Forum | Yes | 8,589 | $1.7K |
| Giving-Petticoat | Yes | 3,926 | $766 |
| Charming-Grape | Yes | 3,458 | $674 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 2,450 | $478 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 2,254 | $440 |
| Unfit-Coleslaw | No | 2,000 | $1.6K |
| Snappy-Warden | No | 2,000 | $1.6K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $335 |
| Oct 24, 04:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $55 |
| Oct 24, 04:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 04:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $216 |
| Oct 24, 04:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $147 |
| Oct 24, 02:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.0% | $173 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 19.5%. Next is October 31 at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/saudi-houthi-ceasefire-agreement-announced-by?via=bro
$476.6K in total volume, with $15.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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