Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.0% in Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? — $351.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $6.
Leading outcome
No
95%
A 95.0% price implies roughly a 95-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −3.5 pts30D −3.5 pts
No95.0%
Yes5.0%
Bid
4¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since December 29, 2025: 37.0% – 95.5% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Category
climate, Weather, hurricane, Climate & Science, Natural Disasters
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$351.7K
Volume (24h)
$6
Liquidity
$1.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 95.0%
Resolution source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.

Since December 29, 2025, No has traded between 37.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 95.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202692.5%
Oct 16, 202691.5%
Oct 18, 202690.0%
Oct 19, 202690.0%
Oct 20, 202690.5%
Oct 23, 202695.0%
Oct 24, 202695.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 95.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No95¢95.0%—$351.7K100.0%
Yes5¢5.0%—$351.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$351.7K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,619 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Impartial-SailboatNo2,619$2.5K
Hopeful-CeleriacYes917$46
Flamboyant-WarmingNo895$850
Warm-LoveYes591$30
Elementary-CleatYes582$29
Small-NotebookNo524$497
Happy-ParchmentYes490$24
Evil-RowYes368$18
Dual-SurfboardYes340$17
Capital-EvictionYes312$16

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $201 at 93.0%BUY No — $107 at 91.2%SELL No — $74 at 91.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:40 AM ETNoSELL94.0%$6
Oct 23, 03:59 PM ETYesBUY5.0%$0
Oct 22, 05:57 AM ETYesSELL3.0%$1
Oct 22, 05:54 AM ETYesSELL3.3%$2
Oct 22, 01:18 AM ETNoSELL93.8%$11
Oct 21, 01:50 PM ETNoSELL94.0%$9
Oct 21, 10:26 AM ETYesBUY6.0%$4
Oct 21, 08:23 AM ETYesSELL3.8%$1
Oct 21, 08:23 AM ETYesSELL6.0%$2
Oct 21, 08:23 AM ETNoBUY93.0%$201

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.0%. Next is Yes at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027??

$351.7K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

What is the most likely outcome of Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 95.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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