As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 95.0% in Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? — $351.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 95.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.
Since December 29, 2025, No has traded between 37.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 95.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.0% |
No is favored at 95.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95¢ | 95.0% | — | $351.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $351.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$351.7K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,619 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Impartial-Sailboat | No | 2,619 | $2.5K |
| Hopeful-Celeriac | Yes | 917 | $46 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 895 | $850 |
| Warm-Love | Yes | 591 | $30 |
| Elementary-Cleat | Yes | 582 | $29 |
| Small-Notebook | No | 524 | $497 |
| Happy-Parchment | Yes | 490 | $24 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 368 | $18 |
| Dual-Surfboard | Yes | 340 | $17 |
| Capital-Eviction | Yes | 312 | $16 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 03:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.3% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 01:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.8% | $11 |
| Oct 21, 01:50 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 10:26 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 08:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.8% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 08:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $201 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 95.0%. Next is Yes at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-category-4-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027?via=bro
$351.7K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
No, priced at 95.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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