As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $7.000+ at 50.5% in Will ground beef hit __ in 2026? — $23.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $7.000+, is priced at 50.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -10.0 pts; past month: -22.5 pts.
Since April 04, 2026, $7.000+ has traded between 41.0% and 89.5%. It opened at 89.5% and last traded at 50.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 50.5% |
$7.000+ is favored at 50.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $7.000+ | 50¢ | 50.5% | -2.0 pts | $244 | 1.1% |
| $9.000+ | 19¢ | 19.0% | +0.5 pts | $841 | 3.6% |
| $8.000+ | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $2.4K | 10.4% |
| $10.000+ | 12¢ | 12.5% | +3.0 pts | $19.6K | 84.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 69¢ (bid 16¢ / ask 85¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$23.1K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolution source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 96 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mellow-Fork | No | 96 | $47 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 67 | $34 |
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 49 | $25 |
| Enormous-Quartet | No | 14 | $7 |
| Beneficial-Amount | No | 5 | $2 |
| Loving-Hate | Yes | 3 | $2 |
| Sharp-Landform | No | 3 | $2 |
| Dazzling-Slope | No | 2 | $1 |
| Worst-Meringue | No | 1 | $1 |
| Rough-Bait | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $4 |
| Oct 12, 08:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $4 |
| Oct 06, 11:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $1 |
| Oct 02, 10:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $12 |
| Oct 02, 11:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.8% | $50 |
| Oct 01, 01:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $8 |
| Oct 01, 01:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 01:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 01, 12:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $2 |
| Oct 01, 12:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is $7.000+ at 50.5%. Next is $9.000+ at 19.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ground-beef-hit-in-2026?via=bro
$23.1K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112.
$7.000+, priced at 50.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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