As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 58.0% in Will Lando Norris win 3+ Grands Prix in 2026? — $310 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 58.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -11.0 pts; past month: -32.5 pts.
Since August 28, 2026, No has traded between 13.5% and 63.0%. It opened at 30.0% and last traded at 56.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 56.0% |
No is favored at 58.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 58¢ | 58.0% | +2.0 pts | $310 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 42¢ | 42.0% | -2.0 pts | $310 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 78¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$310 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lando Norris is officially classified as the winner of three or more Grands Prix during the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A win means being listed in first place in the first final race classification published by the FIA following a Grand Prix, including any time penalties and official adjustments applied before publication. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the first final classification will not affect this market. Sprint race wins will not count. This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as Norris records his third win as defined above. If at any point it becomes impossible for Norris to win three or more Grands Prix during the 2026 season (e.g. fewer races remain than wins required), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If the remainder of the 2026 Formula One season is cancelled, postponed after December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or three wins as defined above have not been recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the FIA and Formula1.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.formula1.com
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 139 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Irresponsible-Lion | No | 139 | $81 |
| Delayed-Underneath | Yes | 100 | $42 |
| Sentimental-Credit | No | 30 | $17 |
| Cooked-Independent | Yes | 30 | $12 |
| Loathsome-Ox | Yes | 21 | $9 |
| Mortified-Wetland | No | 20 | $12 |
| Adorable-Wrap-Penny | Yes | 18 | $8 |
| Harmful-Raincoat-Godfather | No | 17 | $10 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Warming | Yes | 16 | $7 |
| Good-Natured-Boyhood | Yes | 9 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 04:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $3 |
| Oct 11, 01:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 02:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 08:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 70.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 01:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 11:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $4 |
| Oct 04, 03:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 49.0% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 06:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.5% | $1 |
| Oct 04, 05:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $5 |
| Sep 28, 11:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 58.0%. Next is Yes at 42.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-lando-norris-win-3-grands-prix-in-2026?via=bro
$310 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.formula1.com.
No, priced at 58.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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