Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Change at 52.5% in Bank of Canada Decision in December? — $53.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $68.
Leading outcome
No Change
52%
A 52.5% price implies roughly a 52-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D +0.5 pts30D −2.0 pts
No Change52.5%
25 bps increase45.0%
Bid
52¢
Ask
53¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 09, 2026: 38.5% – 63.5% · Opened at 40.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
Category
Canada, Economy, Global Rates, Recurring
Scheduled end
December 08, 2026, 07:00 PM ET
Total volume
$53.8K
Volume (24h)
$68
Liquidity
$7.7K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
No Change — 52.5%
Resolution source
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No Change, is priced at 52.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.

Since September 09, 2026, No Change has traded between 38.5% and 63.5%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 52.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202651.5%
Oct 18, 202652.5%
Oct 19, 202652.0%
Oct 20, 202653.0%
Oct 22, 202653.5%
Oct 23, 202653.0%
Oct 24, 202652.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No Change is favored at 52.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No Change52¢52.5%-0.5 pts$21.1K39.3%
25 bps increase45¢45.0%+2.0 pts$22.1K41.2%
50+ bps increase2¢1.6%—$3.7K6.9%
50+ bps decrease1¢0.7%—$3.4K6.4%
25 bps decrease1¢0.7%—$3.3K6.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 52¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$53.8K has been traded on this event in total, $68 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,190 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No3,190$1.5K
Crisp-ScarfYes1,579$829
Square-TrustYes892$469
Awesome-AvailabilityYes878$461
Few-PreventionYes535$281
Measly-GelatinNo462$220
Each-SummaryYes421$221
Careful-BunchNo409$194
Prickly-EyrieYes395$207
0x6b25c5c4…No285$135

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $197 at 44.3%SELL Yes — $124 at 44.0%BUY No — $90 at 59.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 11:23 PM ETYesBUY45.0%$15
Oct 23, 11:23 PM ETYesBUY45.0%$15
Oct 23, 11:17 AM ETYesSELL52.6%$64
Oct 23, 11:17 AM ETNoBUY47.0%$1
Oct 23, 11:17 AM ETNoBUY47.0%$16
Oct 23, 09:35 AM ETYesSELL39.0%$1
Oct 23, 09:35 AM ETNoSELL46.0%$14
Oct 23, 09:12 AM ETNoBUY61.0%$2
Oct 23, 09:12 AM ETNoBUY61.0%$16
Oct 23, 09:12 AM ETNoBUY57.6%$15

Related markets

More Canada

British Columbia General Election Winner

Conservative 87.5% · 24H VOL $20.6K

Next Premier of British Columbia

Lorne Doerkson 90.5% · 24H VOL $9.4K

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

25 bps increase 81.5% · 24H VOL $3.6K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Bank of Canada Decision in December??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Change at 52.5%. Next is 25 bps increase at 45.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-december-20260908230600011?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Bank of Canada Decision in December??

$53.8K in total volume, with $68 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Bank of Canada Decision in December? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates.

What is the most likely outcome of Bank of Canada Decision in December?, according to Polymarket traders?

No Change, priced at 52.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.