As of October 24, 2026, 07:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Change at 52.5% in Bank of Canada Decision in December? — $53.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Change, is priced at 52.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -2.0 pts.
Since September 09, 2026, No Change has traded between 38.5% and 63.5%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 52.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 52.5% |
No Change is favored at 52.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 52¢ | 52.5% | -0.5 pts | $21.1K | 39.3% |
| 25 bps increase | 45¢ | 45.0% | +2.0 pts | $22.1K | 41.2% |
| 50+ bps increase | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $3.7K | 6.9% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $3.4K | 6.4% |
| 25 bps decrease | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $3.3K | 6.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 52¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$53.8K has been traded on this event in total, $68 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the December 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its December 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its December 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,190 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,190 | $1.5K |
| Crisp-Scarf | Yes | 1,579 | $829 |
| Square-Trust | Yes | 892 | $469 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 878 | $461 |
| Few-Prevention | Yes | 535 | $281 |
| Measly-Gelatin | No | 462 | $220 |
| Each-Summary | Yes | 421 | $221 |
| Careful-Bunch | No | 409 | $194 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 395 | $207 |
| 0x6b25c5c4… | No | 285 | $135 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 11:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 11:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.6% | $64 |
| Oct 23, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 39.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 46.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 09:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 09:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 09:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 57.6% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Change at 52.5%. Next is 25 bps increase at 45.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-december-20260908230600011?via=bro
$53.8K in total volume, with $68 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 08, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates.
No Change, priced at 52.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.