As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price -0.3% to -0.1% at 45.0% in Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)? — $40.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, -0.3% to -0.1%, is priced at 45.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +24.5 pts; past month: +15.5 pts.
Since September 08, 2026, -0.3% to -0.1% has traded between 18.0% and 50.5%. It opened at 25.5% and last traded at 45.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 20.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 36.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 42.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 45.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 45.0% |
-0.3% to -0.1% is favored at 45.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.3% to -0.1% | 45¢ | 45.0% | — | $11.1K | 27.8% |
| <-0.3% | 28¢ | 28.3% | +1.0 pts | $2.2K | 5.5% |
| 0.0% to 0.2% | 22¢ | 22.0% | -1.0 pts | $16.3K | 40.7% |
| 0.6% to 0.8% | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.4 pts | $351 | 0.9% |
| 0.3% to 0.5% | 3¢ | 2.9% | -2.1 pts | $6.8K | 17.0% |
| 0.9% to 1.1% | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.2 pts | $2.9K | 7.3% |
| ≥1.2% | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $336 | 0.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 44¢ / ask 46¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$40.1K has been traded on this event in total, $79 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 01, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 3rd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on December 2, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 896 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noxious-Fibrosis-Coaster | Yes | 896 | $403 |
| Equal-Brass | No | 856 | $471 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 696 | $313 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 512 | $281 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 150 | $82 |
| 0xd0d90cd5… | Yes | 80 | $36 |
| Few-Prevention | No | 63 | $35 |
| Lively-Latitude | Yes | 58 | $26 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 50 | $22 |
| Mediocre-Congo | No | 42 | $23 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 03:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 10:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 21.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 06:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $19 |
| Oct 22, 02:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 02:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 21, 03:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 04:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $17 |
| Oct 20, 04:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 56.0% | $39 |
| Oct 20, 02:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 54.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is -0.3% to -0.1% at 45.0%. Next is <-0.3% at 28.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-qoq?via=bro
$40.1K in total volume, with $79 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 01, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html.
-0.3% to -0.1%, priced at 45.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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