As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.0–5.0% at 96.1% in China Annual GDP Growth 2026 — $941.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4.0–5.0%, is priced at 96.1%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.2 pts; past week: +0.6 pts; past month: +5.6 pts.
Since January 21, 2026, 4.0–5.0% has traded between 57.5% and 96.4%. It opened at 81.0% and last traded at 96.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.1% |
4.0–5.0% is favored at 96.1%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0–5.0% | 96¢ | 96.1% | -0.2 pts | $245.3K | 26.1% |
| 5.0–6.0% | 2¢ | 2.0% | — | $87.4K | 9.3% |
| 3.0–4.0% | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $87.8K | 9.3% |
| 8.0–9.0% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $54.9K | 5.8% |
| 9.0%+ | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $117.7K | 12.5% |
| 2.0–3.0% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $46.7K | 5.0% |
| 6.0-7.0% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $91.3K | 9.7% |
| <1.0% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $68.2K | 7.2% |
| 1.0–2.0% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $76.4K | 8.1% |
| 7.0–8.0% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $65.4K | 6.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$941.1K has been traded on this event in total, $36 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 35,280 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negligible-Last | No | 35,280 | $1.4K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 35,222 | $1.4K |
| Insidious-Workshop-Tamale | Yes | 7,354 | $7.1K |
| Scratchy-Antechamber | No | 7,278 | $284 |
| Flowery-Towtruck | Yes | 5,642 | $5.4K |
| Subdued-Revenant | Yes | 5,139 | $4.9K |
| Fabulous-Online | Yes | 5,000 | $4.8K |
| Gregarious-Return | Yes | 4,792 | $4.6K |
| Light-Tag | Yes | 4,557 | $4.4K |
| LIBAI | Yes | 4,380 | $4.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.5% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 05:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 3.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:25 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.8% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 12:06 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.5% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 05:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 10:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.5% | $34 |
| Oct 21, 09:21 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.8% | $56 |
| Oct 21, 07:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 05:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.4% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 01:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.1% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.0–5.0% at 96.1%. Next is 5.0–6.0% at 2.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/china-annual-gdp-growth-2026?via=bro
$941.1K in total volume, with $36 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/.
4.0–5.0%, priced at 96.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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