As of October 24, 2026, 08:15 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 78.5% in China ballistic missile launch by December 31? — $15.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 78.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -11.0 pts.
Since July 08, 2026, No has traded between 54.5% and 85.5%. It opened at 76.0% and last traded at 78.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 78.5% |
No is favored at 78.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 78¢ | 78.5% | — | $15.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 22¢ | 21.5% | — | $15.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 23¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$15.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,366 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vain-Burn | Yes | 1,366 | $294 |
| Bitter-Cartoon | No | 911 | $715 |
| Unlined-Marshmallow | No | 670 | $526 |
| Ripe-Cake | No | 650 | $511 |
| NoSteinNoGate | Yes | 410 | $88 |
| Long-Stuff | Yes | 333 | $72 |
| Spirited-Lawyer | No | 324 | $254 |
| Admirable-Child | Yes | 312 | $67 |
| Low-Jug | Yes | 255 | $55 |
| Unlucky-Comparison | No | 192 | $151 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 12:26 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 01:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 01:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 01:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $38 |
| Oct 20, 03:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.7% | $15 |
| Oct 20, 05:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 07:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 06:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $8 |
| Oct 19, 06:32 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 78.5%. Next is Yes at 21.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/china-ballistic-missile-launch-by-december-31-20260706145934670?via=bro
$15.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 78.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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