As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.3-4.6% at 46.5% in China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q4 2026? — $13.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4.3-4.6%, is priced at 46.5%.
Since October 20, 2026, 4.3-4.6% has traded between 36.0% and 46.5%. It opened at 36.0% and last traded at 46.5%.
4.3-4.6% is favored at 46.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3-4.6% | 46¢ | 46.5% | — | $2.1K | 15.6% |
| 4.6-4.9% | 44¢ | 43.5% | +1.5 pts | $4.8K | 34.8% |
| 4.0-4.3% | 6¢ | 6.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.0K | 7.3% |
| 4.9-5.2% | 4¢ | 4.4% | -0.4 pts | $1.9K | 14.2% |
| 5.5%+ | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $1.4K | 10.0% |
| <3.4% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.0K | 7.4% |
| 5.2-5.5% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $562 | 4.1% |
| 3.4-3.7% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $412 | 3.0% |
| 3.7-4.0% | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $499 | 3.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 47¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$13.7K has been traded on this event in total, $21 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for some time in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,102 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp-Muscat | Yes | 1,102 | $513 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 787 | $421 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 500 | $268 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 89 | $41 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 72 | $33 |
| Few-Prevention | No | 31 | $17 |
| Candid-Encirclement | Yes | 31 | $14 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 17 | $8 |
| Subdued-Revenant | Yes | 13 | $6 |
| 0xe3a0bbf1… | No | 5 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 41.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 04:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 60.9% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 04:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 04:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 60.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 04:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.6% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 08:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 60.0% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 08:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 54.0% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 08:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.3% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 02:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 56.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.3-4.6% at 46.5%. Next is 4.6-4.9% at 43.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/china-gdp-growth-yy-in-q4-2026?via=bro
$13.7K in total volume, with $21 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
4.3-4.6%, priced at 46.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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