As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 88.3% in Diddy released from custody in 2026? — $2.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 88.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +1.5 pts; past month: +2.8 pts.
Since April 23, 2026, No has traded between 55.0% and 98.1%. It opened at 90.5% and last traded at 88.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 89.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 82.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 82.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 88.5% |
No is favored at 88.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 88.3% | -0.1 pts | $2.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 11.7% | +0.1 pts | $2.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 15¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 19¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 249 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Punctual-Sand | No | 249 | $219 |
| Buzzing-Data | Yes | 100 | $12 |
| Present-Lambkin | No | 100 | $88 |
| Liquid-Cartel | Yes | 50 | $6 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | Yes | 50 | $6 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | No | 50 | $44 |
| Nice-Text | Yes | 48 | $6 |
| Quick-Dancing | No | 46 | $41 |
| Immaterial-Advantage | Yes | 40 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 32 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 08:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 17.4% | $5 |
| Oct 01, 02:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $0 |
| Sep 22, 07:19 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $1 |
| Sep 18, 03:58 PM ET | No | SELL | 97.5% | $28 |
| Sep 17, 05:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.7% | $49 |
| Sep 17, 03:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.5% | $20 |
| Sep 17, 01:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $2 |
| Sep 15, 02:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.3% | $2 |
| Sep 14, 04:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.8% | $101 |
| Aug 29, 09:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.8% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 88.3%. Next is Yes at 11.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/diddy-released-from-custody-in-2026?via=bro
$2.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 88.3% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.