As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.0% in European military action against Iran by...? — $332.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.
Since August 26, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.9% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 3.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 2.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 3.0% |
December 31 is favored at 3.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.1 pts | $2.3K | 0.7% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 2.9% | -1.1 pts | $8.3K | 2.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$332.9K has been traded on this event in total, $65 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 05:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 351 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | No | 351 | $340 |
| Jealous-Saffron | Yes | 189 | $6 |
| Calm-Dusk | No | 188 | $182 |
| Next-Dough-Stay | Yes | 179 | $5 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 120 | $4 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 117 | $4 |
| Grand-Sled | No | 112 | $109 |
| Bossy-Cheesecake | Yes | 111 | $3 |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 100 | $97 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 60 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 08:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.7% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.4% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:35 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.3% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 10:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.2% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.1% | $105 |
| Oct 23, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.9% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.9% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.9% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.0%. Next is October 31 at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/european-military-action-on-iran-byptptpt-20260720022428140?via=bro
$332.9K in total volume, with $65 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 05:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 3.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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