Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

European military action against Iran by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.0% in European military action against Iran by...? — $332.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $65.
Leading outcome
December 31
3%
A 3.0% price implies roughly a 3-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.1 pts7D +0.1 pts30D −6.0 pts
December 313.0%
October 312.9%
Bid
1¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
4¢
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Range since August 26, 2026: 2.9% – 50.5% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
European military action against Iran by...?
Category
UK, eu, Iran, Europe, France, Germany, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 05:59 PM ET
Total volume
$332.9K
Volume (24h)
$65
Liquidity
$21.5K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 3.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -6.0 pts.

Since August 26, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.9% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 3.0%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 20262.9%
Oct 18, 20263.0%
Oct 19, 20263.7%
Oct 20, 20263.7%
Oct 22, 20263.9%
Oct 23, 20263.0%
Oct 24, 20263.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 3.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 313¢3.0%-0.1 pts$2.3K0.7%
October 313¢2.9%-1.1 pts$8.3K2.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$332.9K has been traded on this event in total, $65 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 05:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by any European country, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 351 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Awesome-AvailabilityNo351$340
Jealous-SaffronYes189$6
Calm-DuskNo188$182
Next-Dough-StayYes179$5
Oddball-PoisonYes120$4
Grim-GarageYes117$4
Grand-SledNo112$109
Bossy-CheesecakeYes111$3
Attached-Example-AnesthesiologistNo100$97
Straight-HuntingYes60$2

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.5K at 98.5%BUY No — $1.5K at 98.5%SELL No — $134 at 98.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:14 PM ETYesBUY2.3%$0
Oct 23, 08:03 PM ETYesSELL1.7%$1
Oct 23, 02:12 PM ETNoBUY97.7%$30
Oct 23, 01:00 PM ETYesSELL2.4%$0
Oct 23, 11:35 AM ETNoBUY95.3%$24
Oct 23, 10:52 AM ETNoBUY98.2%$5
Oct 23, 10:52 AM ETNoSELL93.1%$105
Oct 23, 10:52 AM ETYesBUY5.9%$1
Oct 23, 10:52 AM ETYesBUY5.9%$1
Oct 23, 10:52 AM ETYesBUY5.9%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of European military action against Iran by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.0%. Next is October 31 at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/european-military-action-on-iran-byptptpt-20260720022428140?via=bro

How much money has been traded on European military action against Iran by...??

$332.9K in total volume, with $65 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does European military action against Iran by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 05:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of European military action against Iran by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 3.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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