As of October 24, 2026, 07:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2.0–2.5% at 54.5% in GDP growth in 2026 — $89.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 2.0–2.5%, is priced at 54.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +4.0 pts; past month: -15.0 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, 2.0–2.5% has traded between 5.0% and 76.0%. It opened at 48.0% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 55.0% |
2.0–2.5% is favored at 54.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0–2.5% | 55¢ | 54.5% | -0.5 pts | $20.8K | 23.3% |
| >2.5% | 43¢ | 43.5% | +0.7 pts | $25.3K | 28.3% |
| 1.5–2.0% | 2¢ | 1.8% | — | $10.0K | 11.2% |
| <0.5% | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $9.3K | 10.4% |
| 0.5–1.0% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $18.5K | 20.7% |
| 1.0–1.5% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $5.5K | 6.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 49¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$89.3K has been traded on this event in total, $194 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 28, 2027, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,005 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,005 | $1.4K |
| Muted-Primary | Yes | 972 | $530 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 425 | $232 |
| Unsightly-Puma | Yes | 340 | $185 |
| Smooth-Supreme | Yes | 306 | $167 |
| Admirable-Samurai | Yes | 274 | $150 |
| Far-Flung-Grandchild | Yes | 232 | $126 |
| 0x3a9dad53… | Yes | 176 | $96 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 155 | $71 |
| Required-Tactics | No | 130 | $59 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 05:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 01:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 53.8% | $30 |
| Oct 20, 02:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 50.0% | $16 |
| Oct 16, 04:48 AM ET | No | BUY | 50.0% | $1 |
| Oct 12, 10:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $3 |
| Oct 12, 10:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 49.0% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 10:21 PM ET | No | BUY | 50.0% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 12:08 PM ET | No | SELL | 51.1% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2.0–2.5% at 54.5%. Next is >2.5% at 43.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/gdp-growth-in-2026?via=bro
$89.3K in total volume, with $194 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 28, 2027, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
2.0–2.5%, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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