As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1 at 50.5% in How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026? — $1.17M traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1, is priced at 50.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: -1.5 pts; past month: +3.5 pts.
Since January 02, 2026, 1 has traded between 14.5% and 62.5%. It opened at 39.5% and last traded at 50.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 50.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 50.5% |
1 is favored at 50.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50¢ | 50.5% | +0.5 pts | $275.4K | 23.6% |
| 0 | 28¢ | 27.5% | +1.0 pts | $500.9K | 42.9% |
| 2 | 9¢ | 9.4% | -0.9 pts | $46.6K | 4.0% |
| 3 | 2¢ | 2.0% | -2.4 pts | $32.4K | 2.8% |
| 5+ | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $276.2K | 23.7% |
| 4 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $36.2K | 3.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 37¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.17M has been traded on this event in total, $19 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Resolution source: https://volcano.si.edu/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 11,026 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 11,026 | $5.5K |
| Second-Hand-Presume | Yes | 1,660 | $838 |
| Far-Spit | Yes | 1,546 | $781 |
| Hideous-Racer | Yes | 1,303 | $658 |
| Punctual-Sand | Yes | 1,028 | $519 |
| Velvety-Burn | Yes | 978 | $494 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 800 | $404 |
| Unfinished-Outlet | Yes | 767 | $387 |
| Green-Rebel | No | 734 | $363 |
| Unique-Privilege | Yes | 693 | $350 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 09:10 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.5% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 05:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.5% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 08:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.7% | $8 |
| Oct 15, 02:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 08:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 61.2% | $9 |
| Oct 11, 07:46 AM ET | No | SELL | 66.0% | $3 |
| Oct 11, 07:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 65.0% | $11 |
| Oct 10, 10:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.7% | $8 |
| Oct 10, 10:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 10:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.3% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1 at 50.5%. Next is 0 at 27.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-large-volcano-eruption-vei-4-in-2026-657?via=bro
$1.17M in total volume, with $19 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://volcano.si.edu/.
1, priced at 50.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.