Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 0.0%–0.8% at 25.9% in Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)? — $45.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $115.
Leading outcome
0.0%–0.8%
26%
A 25.9% price implies roughly a 26-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +3.3 pts30D −2.8 pts
0.0%–0.8%25.9%
-0.8%–0.0%20.5%
Bid
25¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 17, 2026: 13.3% – 49.5% · Opened at 49.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
Category
GDP, Japan, Economy, Recurring
Scheduled end
November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$45.8K
Volume (24h)
$115
Liquidity
$10.7K
Markets
10
Leading outcome
0.0%–0.8% — 25.9%
Resolution source
https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 0.0%–0.8%, is priced at 25.9%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.3 pts; past month: -2.8 pts.

Since August 17, 2026, 0.0%–0.8% has traded between 13.3% and 49.5%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 25.9%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202622.6%
Oct 18, 202628.6%
Oct 19, 202629.5%
Oct 20, 202626.0%
Oct 22, 202625.6%
Oct 23, 202625.9%
Oct 24, 202625.9%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

0.0%–0.8% is favored at 25.9%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
0.0%–0.8%26¢25.9%—$16.8K36.7%
-0.8%–0.0%20¢20.5%—$6.8K14.9%
-1.6%– -0.8%18¢17.9%+2.4 pts$2.4K5.3%
0.8%–1.6%16¢16.5%-0.5 pts$5.0K10.9%
1.6%–2.4%13¢13.4%+1.0 pts$2.3K4.9%
<-2.4%6¢6.0%+0.4 pts$1.6K3.4%
2.4%–3.2%6¢5.5%—$4.0K8.8%
-2.4%– -1.6%4¢4.0%+0.4 pts$4.6K10.0%
4.0%+3¢3.4%—$8161.8%
3.2%–4.0%3¢3.2%-0.2 pts$1.5K3.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 25¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$45.8K has been traded on this event in total, $115 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 464 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No464$344
Evil-RowYes221$57
Known-UseNo178$132
Infatuated-NunYes118$31
Belated-GlueYes85$22
Frugal-CanteenYes70$18
Equal-BrassYes63$16
0xd0d90cd5…Yes50$13
Oddball-PoisonYes45$12
Masculine-HazelNo40$30

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.1K at 80.5%SELL No — $274 at 90.3%BUY Yes — $85 at 14.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:32 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$39
Oct 24, 06:14 PM ETYesSELL23.0%$5
Oct 24, 06:11 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$15
Oct 24, 06:11 PM ETNoBUY77.0%$15
Oct 23, 06:34 PM ETYesBUY19.0%$4
Oct 23, 06:34 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$4
Oct 22, 08:09 PM ETYesSELL8.0%$0
Oct 22, 06:27 PM ETYesBUY18.0%$2
Oct 22, 06:27 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$11
Oct 21, 05:40 AM ETYesSELL24.8%$7

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2026 World GDP Growth

3.1% 59.0% · 24H VOL $1.3K

Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026

0-1.0% 47.1% · 24H VOL $991

Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?

1.0-1.2% 46.5% · 24H VOL $803

Canada GDP: August 2026 (MoM)

0.2 to 0.3% 37.0% · 24H VOL $612

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5% 54.5% · 24H VOL $194

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 0.0%–0.8% at 25.9%. Next is -0.8%–0.0% at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/japan-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-qoq-annualized?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)??

$45.8K in total volume, with $115 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.

When does Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html.

What is the most likely outcome of Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?, according to Polymarket traders?

0.0%–0.8%, priced at 25.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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