As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 0.0%–0.8% at 25.9% in Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)? — $45.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 0.0%–0.8%, is priced at 25.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.3 pts; past month: -2.8 pts.
Since August 17, 2026, 0.0%–0.8% has traded between 13.3% and 49.5%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 25.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 22.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 28.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 25.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 25.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 25.9% |
0.0%–0.8% is favored at 25.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0%–0.8% | 26¢ | 25.9% | — | $16.8K | 36.7% |
| -0.8%–0.0% | 20¢ | 20.5% | — | $6.8K | 14.9% |
| -1.6%– -0.8% | 18¢ | 17.9% | +2.4 pts | $2.4K | 5.3% |
| 0.8%–1.6% | 16¢ | 16.5% | -0.5 pts | $5.0K | 10.9% |
| 1.6%–2.4% | 13¢ | 13.4% | +1.0 pts | $2.3K | 4.9% |
| <-2.4% | 6¢ | 6.0% | +0.4 pts | $1.6K | 3.4% |
| 2.4%–3.2% | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $4.0K | 8.8% |
| -2.4%– -1.6% | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.4 pts | $4.6K | 10.0% |
| 4.0%+ | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $816 | 1.8% |
| 3.2%–4.0% | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.2 pts | $1.5K | 3.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 25¢ / ask 27¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$45.8K has been traded on this event in total, $115 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 464 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 464 | $344 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 221 | $57 |
| Known-Use | No | 178 | $132 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 118 | $31 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 85 | $22 |
| Frugal-Canteen | Yes | 70 | $18 |
| Equal-Brass | Yes | 63 | $16 |
| 0xd0d90cd5… | Yes | 50 | $13 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 45 | $12 |
| Masculine-Hazel | No | 40 | $30 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 06:14 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 06:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 06:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 06:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 08:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 06:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 06:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $11 |
| Oct 21, 05:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 24.8% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 0.0%–0.8% at 25.9%. Next is -0.8%–0.0% at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/japan-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-qoq-annualized?via=bro
$45.8K in total volume, with $115 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html.
0.0%–0.8%, priced at 25.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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