As of October 24, 2026, 08:03 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.0% in Negative GDP growth in 2026? — $34.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: -0.1 pts; past month: +0.9 pts.
Since November 13, 2025, No has traded between 45.5% and 98.0%. It opened at 66.5% and last traded at 97.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 96.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.0% |
No is favored at 97.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 97.0% | -0.2 pts | $34.0K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 2.9% | +0.2 pts | $34.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$34.0K has been traded on this event in total, $19 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 28, 2027, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,668 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perfumed-Appointment | No | 6,668 | $6.5K |
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | Yes | 3,217 | $95 |
| Hairy-Inbox | Yes | 2,726 | $80 |
| Jumpy-Lace | No | 400 | $388 |
| Pleasing-Elm | Yes | 392 | $12 |
| Glossy-Founding | No | 317 | $308 |
| Determined-Bubble | Yes | 267 | $8 |
| Pleased-Danger | Yes | 258 | $8 |
| Impure-Halibut-Dad | Yes | 244 | $7 |
| Incompatible-Edition | No | 232 | $225 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:25 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 12:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.6% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 09:58 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.6% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 09:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 08:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.8% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 02:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.9% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 02:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 10:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.6% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 06:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.8% | $19 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.0%. Next is Yes at 2.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026?via=bro
$34.0K in total volume, with $19 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 28, 2027, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
No, priced at 97.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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