As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.0% in New COVID variant of concern before 2027? — $247.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -5.5 pts.
Since December 01, 2025, No has traded between 66.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 78.0% and last traded at 86.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.0% |
No is favored at 86.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.0% | — | $247.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 14.0% | — | $247.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$247.2K has been traded on this event in total, $5 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
Resolution source: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,313 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uncomfortable-Jail | No | 1,313 | $1.1K |
| Defensive-Sunlamp | Yes | 680 | $95 |
| Lean-Trolley | No | 480 | $413 |
| Straight-Apprehension | No | 380 | $327 |
| Reasonable-Hesitation | Yes | 337 | $47 |
| Unlucky-Comparison | No | 289 | $249 |
| Impolite-Infix | No | 217 | $187 |
| Amusing-Campaigning | Yes | 170 | $24 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 156 | $22 |
| Dry-Movie | Yes | 155 | $22 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 06:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $9 |
| Oct 11, 07:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $17 |
| Oct 10, 09:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 08, 11:51 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $4 |
| Oct 08, 11:51 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $7 |
| Oct 08, 11:29 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 08, 11:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 87.0% | $27 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.0%. Next is Yes at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/new-covid-variant-of-concern-before-2027?via=bro
$247.2K in total volume, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
No, priced at 86.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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