As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No Change at 95.5% in People's Bank of China rate change by December 31? — $12.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No Change, is priced at 95.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, No Change has traded between 82.5% and 96.0%. It opened at 84.5% and last traded at 96.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.0% |
No Change is favored at 95.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 96¢ | 95.5% | -0.5 pts | $5.3K | 40.9% |
| Decrease | 2¢ | 2.4% | -0.3 pts | $5.6K | 43.4% |
| Increase | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $2.0K | 15.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 10:59 AM ET.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,619 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp-Muscat | Yes | 1,619 | $1.5K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,602 | $72 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 474 | $21 |
| Arid-Cinema | Yes | 300 | $286 |
| Subdued-Revenant | Yes | 238 | $227 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 161 | $154 |
| Upbeat-Impairment-Hose | Yes | 100 | $96 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 90 | $4 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 84 | $4 |
| Uniform-Movie | Yes | 67 | $64 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 07:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 08:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 02:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 10:21 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.2% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 08:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 08:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 08:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.1% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 08:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.9% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No Change at 95.5%. Next is Decrease at 2.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/peoples-bank-of-china-rate-change-by-december-31?via=bro
$12.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 10:59 AM ET.
No Change, priced at 95.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.