As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Carlos Prates at 61.5% in UFC: Who Will Islam Makhachev Fight Next? — $402 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Carlos Prates, is priced at 61.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -23.5 pts; past week: -30.5 pts; past month: -27.0 pts.
Since August 17, 2026, Carlos Prates has traded between 62.0% and 93.5%. It opened at 65.0% and last traded at 62.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 62.0% |
Carlos Prates is favored at 61.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 62¢ | 61.5% | -23.5 pts | $329 | 81.7% |
| Fighter A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Fighter J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Michael Morales | 50¢ | 49.5% | — | $45 | 11.3% |
| Sean Brady | 25¢ | 25.4% | -25.5 pts | $28 | 7.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 31¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$402 has been traded on this event in total, $47 of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end August 16, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Islam Makhachev is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that UFC officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Islam Makhachev is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by August 16, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 54 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| bakayo33 - 9934 | Yes | 54 | $33 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 50 | $19 |
| Loathsome-Ox | Yes | 27 | $17 |
| Superior-Impression | No | 25 | $10 |
| Trusting-Resist | Yes | 5 | $3 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | No | 5 | $2 |
| Frail-Prayer | No | 5 | $2 |
| Grim-Cob | No | 2 | $1 |
| Wretched-Tea | Yes | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 77.2% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 19.7% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 01:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 4.6% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 02:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 80.0% | $4 |
| Oct 19, 12:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 51.2% | $13 |
| Sep 29, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Sep 29, 02:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Sep 29, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Sep 28, 02:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Carlos Prates at 61.5%. Next is Fighter A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-islam-makhachev-next-fight-1786908469816?via=bro
$402 in total volume, with $47 traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end August 16, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Carlos Prates, priced at 61.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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