As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1-2% at 88.5% in UK Annual GDP Growth 2026 — $112.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1-2%, is priced at 88.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -0.4 pts; past month: -0.6 pts.
Since January 22, 2026, 1-2% has traded between 16.0% and 94.5%. It opened at 36.5% and last traded at 88.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 89.3% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 88.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 87.4% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 88.5% |
1-2% is favored at 88.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2% | 89¢ | 88.5% | -0.1 pts | $44.5K | 39.4% |
| 0-1% | 7¢ | 6.6% | -0.1 pts | $27.5K | 24.3% |
| 2-3% | 2¢ | 2.1% | +0.1 pts | $6.3K | 5.5% |
| <0 | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $13.3K | 11.7% |
| 5%+ | 1¢ | 0.8% | -0.4 pts | $6.0K | 5.3% |
| 4-5% | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $10.7K | 9.5% |
| 3-4% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $4.7K | 4.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 88¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$112.9K has been traded on this event in total, $196 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 12, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release. If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,394 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly-Raffle | Yes | 3,394 | $3.0K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,219 | $369 |
| Insubstantial-Coffee | No | 1,621 | $186 |
| Equal-Brass | Yes | 1,020 | $903 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 780 | $690 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 311 | $36 |
| Powerful-Waste | Yes | 290 | $257 |
| Dizzy-Lemur | Yes | 215 | $190 |
| Arid-Cinema | No | 200 | $23 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | No | 161 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 09:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.1% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 08:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.1% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 11.6% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.7% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 08:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $6 |
| Oct 21, 06:03 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.4% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 06:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.6% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 02:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 11.7% | $9 |
| Oct 19, 03:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 88.7% | $18 |
| Oct 19, 03:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.6% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1-2% at 88.5%. Next is 0-1% at 6.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/uk-annual-gdp-growth-2026?via=bro
$112.9K in total volume, with $196 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 12, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases.
1-2%, priced at 88.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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