As of October 24, 2026, 07:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ≥3.0% at 66.0% in US GDP growth in Q3 2026? — $62.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ≥3.0%, is priced at 66.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -7.0 pts.
Since July 31, 2026, ≥3.0% has traded between 8.5% and 73.5%. It opened at 8.5% and last traded at 66.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 66.0% |
≥3.0% is favored at 66.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥3.0% | 66¢ | 66.0% | +2.0 pts | $47.6K | 75.8% |
| 2.5–3.0% | 17¢ | 17.0% | +2.5 pts | $5.2K | 8.3% |
| 2.0–2.5% | 9¢ | 9.0% | — | $4.0K | 6.3% |
| 1.5–2.0% | 5¢ | 5.1% | +1.0 pts | $1.6K | 2.5% |
| 1.0–1.5% | 2¢ | 1.5% | -0.9 pts | $1.4K | 2.2% |
| <0.5% | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $1.7K | 2.8% |
| 0.5–1.0% | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $1.3K | 2.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 64¢ / ask 68¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$62.9K has been traded on this event in total, $111 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,809 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Powerless-Bijou | No | 2,809 | $955 |
| Each-Summary | No | 2,510 | $853 |
| Heavy-Gentleman | No | 2,000 | $680 |
| Webbed-Edible | Yes | 1,715 | $1.1K |
| Evil-Operation | Yes | 1,394 | $920 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 1,389 | $917 |
| Defensive-Plunger | No | 1,326 | $451 |
| Wooden-Prescription | Yes | 1,112 | $734 |
| Equal-Brass | Yes | 1,055 | $696 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 979 | $333 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:52 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 62.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 02:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 12:32 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 64.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 07:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 37.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 02:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 12:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.5% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 11:13 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 12:05 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is ≥3.0% at 66.0%. Next is 2.5–3.0% at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q3-2026-20260730144539767?via=bro
$62.9K in total volume, with $111 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
≥3.0%, priced at 66.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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