As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Avengers: Doomsday at 55.0% in Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026? — $2.51M traded so far.
The leading outcome, Avengers: Doomsday, is priced at 55.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +9.5 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, Avengers: Doomsday has traded between 27.5% and 84.5%. It opened at 46.5% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 55.0% |
Avengers: Doomsday is favored at 55.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avengers: Doomsday | 55¢ | 55.0% | +2.0 pts | $509.6K | 20.3% |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 42¢ | 42.5% | -1.5 pts | $326.2K | 13.0% |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $82.7K | 3.3% |
| Dune: Messiah | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $185.2K | 7.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 56¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.51M has been traded on this event in total, $5.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 83,416 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 83,416 | $37.5K |
| Whimsical-Terminal | No | 28,375 | $12.8K |
| Parallel-Trader | Yes | 16,842 | $9.3K |
| Mild-Contingency | No | 16,414 | $7.4K |
| Profuse-Defense-Speed | Yes | 16,159 | $8.9K |
| Monumental-Union | Yes | 15,626 | $8.6K |
| Glaring-Epee | Yes | 12,437 | $6.8K |
| Pink-Bookend | Yes | 7,785 | $4.3K |
| Sociable-Rooster | Yes | 7,700 | $4.2K |
| Gloomy-Battery | Yes | 7,226 | $4.0K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $43 |
| Oct 24, 04:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 54.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 54.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 44.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 46.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $64 |
| Oct 24, 11:15 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 54.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Avengers: Doomsday at 55.0%. Next is Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 42.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-weekend-in-2026?via=bro
$2.51M in total volume, with $5.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026.
Avengers: Doomsday, priced at 55.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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