Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.4% in Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? — $142.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $6.
Leading outcome
No
97%
A 97.4% price implies roughly a 97-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.1 pts7D −2.1 pts30D −0.8 pts
No97.4%
Yes2.6%
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since December 31, 2025: 76.5% – 97.6% · Opened at 86.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Category
Climate & Science, Weather, Hurricanes
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$142.8K
Volume (24h)
$6
Liquidity
$1.2K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 97.4%
Resolution source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.4%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -2.1 pts; past month: -0.8 pts.

Since December 31, 2025, No has traded between 76.5% and 97.6%. It opened at 86.5% and last traded at 97.4%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202695.3%
Oct 18, 202695.3%
Oct 19, 202695.7%
Oct 20, 202695.7%
Oct 22, 202697.4%
Oct 23, 202697.4%
Oct 24, 202697.4%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 97.4%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No97¢97.4%+0.1 pts$142.8K100.0%
Yes3¢2.6%-0.1 pts$142.8K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$142.8K has been traded on this event in total, $6 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

Resolution source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,963 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Buoyant-IceNo1,963$1.9K
Impartial-SailboatNo1,396$1.4K
Crushing-CanopyYes949$25
Odd-FraudYes660$17
Rare-AverageNo500$487
Repulsive-TailbudYes418$11
Gorgeous-ProvisionYes417$11
Burdensome-ArmadilloNo343$334
Sleepy-HeronYes317$8
Jam-Packed-PeaceYes200$5

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $265 at 93.7%SELL No — $246 at 96.2%BUY No — $121 at 97.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:41 AM ETNoSELL96.8%$6
Oct 21, 12:22 PM ETYesSELL2.0%$0
Oct 21, 11:07 AM ETNoSELL96.8%$22
Oct 19, 04:28 PM ETYesBUY3.9%$2
Oct 14, 12:57 PM ETYesBUY4.8%$1
Oct 13, 03:30 AM ETNoSELL95.5%$1
Oct 12, 10:40 AM ETNoSELL95.5%$5
Oct 06, 10:33 AM ETYesSELL2.5%$1
Oct 05, 01:40 PM ETNoSELL96.2%$246
Sep 30, 01:26 AM ETYesBUY2.6%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.4%. Next is Yes at 2.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027??

$142.8K in total volume, with $6 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

What is the most likely outcome of Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 97.4% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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