As of October 24, 2026, 09:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.2% in Will Francis Ngannou return to the UFC by December 31, 2026? — $17 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +4.4 pts; past month: -2.1 pts.
Since August 29, 2026, No has traded between 76.0% and 98.6%. It opened at 76.0% and last traded at 94.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.2% |
No is favored at 94.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.2% | — | $17 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.9% | — | $17 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Francis Ngannou officially participates in a UFC fight by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements of a fight, signing a UFC contract, or participation in exhibitions of any kind will not qualify toward this market's resolution. Only instances where Ngannou officially participates in an official UFC-sanctioned fight will count toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 17 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Well-Worn-Lounge | No | 17 | $16 |
| Voluminous-Mark-Ray | Yes | 9 | $1 |
| Back-Browsing-Peacock | Yes | 8 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 08:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $17 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.2%. Next is Yes at 5.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-francis-ngannou-return-to-the-ufc-by-december-31-2026?via=bro
$17 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.2% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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