As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 2.6% at 94.5% in Core CPI YoY - October 2026 — $9.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 2.6%, is priced at 94.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.5 pts; past week: +26.5 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, 2.6% has traded between 39.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 39.5% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
2.6% is favored at 94.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.6% | 94¢ | 94.5% | +4.5 pts | $4.5K | 46.8% |
| 3.0% | 3¢ | 2.6% | -3.8 pts | $647 | 6.7% |
| 2.5% | 2¢ | 2.1% | +1.5 pts | $1.4K | 14.6% |
| ≤2.2% | 2¢ | 1.7% | -0.1 pts | $463 | 4.8% |
| 2.7% | 1¢ | 1.1% | -3.0 pts | $669 | 7.0% |
| 2.3% | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $381 | 4.0% |
| ≥3.1% | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $391 | 4.1% |
| 2.4% | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $390 | 4.1% |
| 2.8% | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $344 | 3.6% |
| 2.9% | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $413 | 4.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.6K has been traded on this event in total, $972 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on November 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 580 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Good-Natured-Angora | Yes | 580 | $548 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 500 | $473 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 381 | $21 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 245 | $13 |
| Bumpy-Conscience | Yes | 218 | $206 |
| Well-Informed-Ischemia | Yes | 212 | $200 |
| Known-Use | No | 172 | $9 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 100 | $6 |
| 0xd45bf309… | No | 68 | $4 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 67 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 01:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 92.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 8.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:46 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 01:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 2.6% at 94.5%. Next is 3.0% at 2.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/core-cpi-yoy-october-2026?via=bro
$9.6K in total volume, with $972 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm.
2.6%, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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